Indy 500's Promises, Possibilities and Probabilities

With the 91st running of the Indianapolis 500 a mere 20 days away, it is not too early to discuss the possibilities and probabilities that will occur between now and race day.

Obviously, the new media target will be Milka Duno, the sports car driver who is making her Indy debut. She has next to zero open-wheel experience – she finished 14th place at her inaugural event in Kansas City – but she will still demand attention simply because she is a woman with the looks of a swimsuit model.

Duno drives for SAMAX Motorsports, whom she helped finish second at the Rolex 24 at Daytona in January.

Duno is in no way inexperienced when it comes to auto racing, but will she be a contender come race day?

No.

Unlike Danica Patrick’s amazing rookie season in 2005 when she came up four laps short of winning the Indy 500, Duno has not driven the entire race schedule thus far. She has one race. She started dead last and moved up to finish 14th with the help of attrition. She is not familiar with this track, nor is she familiar with her fellow drivers.

Assuming Duno qualifies for her first Indy 500, I cannot see her staying on the lead lap for more than 10 laps.

Or….

She could have a decent qualifying run and with the help of a few breaks and a solid pit stop strategy, she could be battling Ganassi, Penske and AGR for the lead in the closing laps.

But I have a better chance at winning the Presidential Democratic Nomination than Duno does of winning or even competing in the 500.

But, that is what makes the Indy 500 the spectacle it is: anything can happen.

Now, to the most important question of the month – not necessarily who will win the race, but will it be a Penske, Ganassi or AGR driver that will be sipping milk in victory lane?

Will Helio climb the fence for the third time? Will Weldon regroup from last year’s disappointing fourth place finish after leading a race-high 148 laps to capture his second victory in three years? What about the defending champion, Sam Hornish? Despite a subpar start to the IRL season, Hornish will be a factor on Memorial Day weekend because of the name on his car – Penske.
Or, will the winner come from the Andretti-Green Racing stable? Can Tony Kanaan shake off many Indy 500 disappointments and win the second Borg Warner Trophy for car owner Michael Andretti.

Speaking of Andretti, can he overcome last year’s third-place finish and win the one race that has eluded his career?

Do not count out Marco – last year’s runner-up – who had the race won until the final straightaway. If Marco is in the same situation this year, I guarantee he will not make the same mistake twice.

Throw in Ganassi’s Scott Dixon and AGR’s Dario Franchitti, and I would be stunned if the winner does not emerge from the aforementioned group.

But, as mentioned earlier, that is what makes the Indy 500 so special and suspenseful. A few mishaps by the big dogs and a couple odd-ball strategies from some smaller teams and Scott Sharp or Ed Carpenter could shock the world.

That is why they call it the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.