Official 2008 Indy 500 Prediction

Yes folks, it is finally that time. The moment you have all been waiting for.

It is time for the DFresh prediction of who will drink the milk after the 92nd Running of the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday.

33 drivers will start but only one will be recognized as an Indy 500 champion by day’s end.

Who will that driver be?

Well, the answer is very simple. It is more than simple. In fact, it is a no-brainer.

Let’s be realistic. More than half of this Sunday’s field does not have a prayer.

Marty Roth. Milka Duno. Enrique Bernaldi. A.J. Foyt IV. The list can go on. Thank you for showing up and helping fill the field, but it is past your bedtime.

The field consists of four former winners; Buddy Lazier (1996), Helio Castroneves (2001-02), Buddy Rice (2004) and Dan Wheldon (2005). Will one of these gentlemen add another trophy to their mantle? Castroneves and Wheldon are both overwhelming favorites with Lazier and Rice on the outside looking in.

For the second straight year, three women will be given the command to start their engines. Sarah Fisher brings the most experience to the table with her seventh start. Milka Duno embarks on her second Indy 500 with another year of experience under her belt. Danica Patrick, making her fourth start, is oozing with confidence after her first IndyCar win in Japan last month. If any of these women are to make history on Sunday, Patrick would be the best bet.

The field is comprised of 11 rookies, most of which are a result of the off-season open-wheel merger between Champ Car and the IRL. Most of these rookies have zero oval experience which is a recipe for disaster, but there are a few picks of the litter.

Graham Rahal, son of 1986 winner Bobby Rahal, is considered the favorite of the rookies based on his appreciation and respect for the speedway. He drives for Newman Haas Lanigan Racing, which won the last four Champ Car series championships but years of disappointment at Indy should motivate young Rahal.
ODDS: 50:1

So, exactly who will win Sunday’s race?

Let’s start from the top.

Pole sitter Scott Dixon finished runner-up to Dario Franchitti in last year’s Indy 500 and has been fast all month, but starting from the pole does not guarantee a victory. Dating back to Rick Mears in 1988, only six pole winners have gone on to win the race, so history does not bode well for Dixon.
ODDS: 10:1

2005 Indy winner Wheldon should be a contender on Sunday, but his lengthy hair and new teeth will cause his car to develop a push in the turns, which means he will have to wait another year for a second win.
ODDS: 9:1

Penske newcomer Ryan Briscoe has had relative success at Indy, but it would be difficult to picture him in Victory Lane. Briscoe put his back-up car into the wall in practice this month, and odds are he will do the same with his primary car come Sunday.
ODDS: 25:1

Helio Castroneves is a victim of his own success. Two wins in two starts make Castroneves a contender year-after-year, but it has been six years since he climbed the fence in victory. The Dancing with the Stars winner needs to share the wealth and let somebody else drink the milk and kiss the queen.
ODDS: 5:1

Danica Patrick led 19 laps in her rookie run of 2005, but she failed to lead the most important lap. She won her first IRL event last month in Japan and is a legitimate contender on Sunday. The IRL will quietly be cheering for Patrick because a victory on Sunday would generate millions of dollars in sponsorships and revenue. Unfortunately, there are too many other top contenders for her to compete with so it will take another risky fuel strategy to steal a victory.
ODDS: 10:1

Marco Andretti finished second to Sam Hornish, Jr. in 2006 in the 2nd-closest finish in the history of the Indy 500, but that is as close as he will get on Sunday. Andretti’s cockiness and lack of appreciation is why he does not deserve an Indy win just yet. He has been fast all month, but after his runner-up finish in 2006 his immediate reaction was, “Second place is nothing. They don’t remember people who finish second here.” Marco feels he deserves a win here simply because of the notoriety of his last name. If you do not respect Indy, you end up in the wall or upside down, which is how Marco finished last year, and odds are that is where he will end this year.
ODDS: 100:1

Tomas Scheckter has nearly won this race twice already, but has not been competitive since a fourth-place finish in 2003. He led a race-high 85 laps as a rookie in 2002, but crashed out while leading the race with just 28 laps left. Scheckter is the biggest threat to the 3 power teams, but he will need to show more patience than in years past.
ODDS: 25:1

There you have it; the odds and predictions for the top contenders in Sunday’s race. Of course, there is one driver left, and that would be the winner.

DFRESH PREDICTION:

Tony Kanaan will end all of his disappointment and snake-bit luck on Sunday and will finally capture the only trophy that has eluded him throughout his career – the Borg Warner Trophy. Kanaan has been close year after year. He has led 202 laps since his rookie year in 2002 and he has shown no signs of slowing down. He drives for Andretti-Green Racing, which has produced two of the last three Indy winners, so experience is on his side. Kanaan has three top-five finishes on his Indy 500 resume, but he is tired of coming up short. Kanaan has the drive, the patience, the passion, the experience, and the killer instinct that is required to win this great race. 2008 is the year of Kanaan.
ODDS: 2:1

Good luck and Godspeed